Live — Finance & Football verticals active

The Prediction Hub

Vertical forecasting markets for finance, sports, and beyond. Community-driven predictions, AI-enhanced models, expert-verified signals. One hub, many verticals.

Finance Predictions → Football Predictions →
6
Live Properties
22
Club Sites
200+
Pages Live
50+
Open Questions
10
Strategies in Pipeline
VERTICALS

Prediction markets, organized by domain

Each vertical is a specialized forecasting community with its own questions, experts, and AI models. Altus Alpha connects them all.

Finance
Macro · AI Infrastructure · Earnings · Crypto · Global
Live
50 questions
5 tracks
36 forecasts

Fed rate decisions, NVIDIA earnings, Bitcoin targets, S&P 500 levels, semiconductor cycle, Europe vs US rotation. Three-tier model: Community + AI (Haiku Oracle) + Verified Experts.

Open Finance Predictions →
Football
Bundesliga · Champions League · Transfers
Live
22 clubs
3 tracks
— forecasts

Matchday predictions, season markets, and transfer questions across all Bundesliga clubs. Powered by Akte Bundesliga's 60+ years of data and 22 club dossiers.

Open Football Predictions →
Bundesliga Polymarket
Real-money prediction markets via Polymarket Builder
Live
22 clubs
Pinnacle odds
Oracle-verified

Real-money Bundesliga prediction markets on Polymarket — Pinnacle-sourced odds, automated oracle resolution. The complete 22-club network with dedicated Akte dossiers per club.

Akte BVB Akte Bayern Akte Bayer Akte Eintracht Akte Gladbach Akte Stuttgart Akte SCF Akte Leipzig Akte Werder Akte Wölfe Akte Union Akte Hoffe Akte Mainz Akte Augsburg Akte Effzeh Akte HSV Akte St. Pauli Akte Heidenheim Akte Hertha Akte Königsblau Akte Fortuna Akte Paderborn Akte Bundesliga Hub ↗
Investment & Trading
12 Prediction Verticals
Aggregated prediction market intelligence across Polymarket, Kalshi, and proprietary data sources. European information advantage on US-dominated markets.
Traders · Investors · Family Offices · Institutions
📈Live
Financial Forecasts
Equities, indices, sector rotation. AW25, HALO Growth 100, Rubin Build-Out, Euro-AI Sovereign 50. Money Temperature signals.
Open financial forecasts →
⚽Live
Football Forecasts
Bundesliga Oracle across 22 clubs. Pinnacle odds, Polymarket prices, season markets, relegation & title probabilities.
Open football forecasts →
₿Coming Soon
Crypto Forecasts
BTC, ETH, SOL — price targets, halving cycles, regulatory triggers. MiCA regulatory edge. 24/7 markets, timezone-neutral alpha.
🏛️Coming Soon
Politics
Elections, policy shifts, approval ratings. European politics systematically mispriced on US-dominated platforms. EU, DE, FR, UK, US.
🎬Coming Soon
Culture & Entertainment
Oscars, Grammys, Eurovision, Cannes, Berlinale, Billboard. European cultural events underrepresented on prediction markets.
🚀Coming Soon
Company & Tech
IPOs, earnings surprises, product launches, layoff waves, M&A approvals. Tech cycle timing, AI adoption curves.
🌍Coming Soon
World Affairs
Trade deals, sanctions, NATO decisions, EU policy shifts. European insiders see geopolitical developments before US markets price them.
🌪️Coming Soon
Climate & Weather
Hurricane seasons, temperature records, natural disasters, climate policy triggers. Reinsurance-grade event forecasting.
🏆Coming Soon
Sports (Global)
Beyond football: NBA, NFL, Tennis, Formula 1, Golf, Cricket, UFC. Highest-volume vertical on Kalshi & Polymarket combined.
📊Coming Soon
Economics & Macro
Fed, ECB, BOE rate decisions, inflation prints, recession probability. ECB decisions mispriced on US platforms; rate path divergence and currency shocks as direct FX hedging.
🧬Coming Soon
Science & Health
FDA approvals, pandemic forecasting, Nobel predictions, WHO decisions. Biotech catalyst timing, clinical trial outcomes.
⚡Coming Soon
Energy
Oil price targets, OPEC decisions, EU energy policy, renewables milestones, gas storage levels. Energiewende as a structural European signal.
Corporate Event Hedging
Risk Intelligence
Prediction markets as hedging instruments for corporate event risk. Turn uncertainty into quantified probability — and act on it before it materialises.
Treasury · Risk Management · C-Suite · Board Advisory
Direct event hedging. Until now, companies had to hedge event risk indirectly — through puts on exposed stocks, FX options, or commodity futures. Prediction markets enable direct hedging against the event itself for the first time: "Will US tariffs on EU autos exceed 25%?" — one contract, one payout, no detour.
🏷️Planned
Tariffs & Trade Policy
Direct hedging against tariff escalations, trade embargoes, and retaliatory measures. Not through equity proxies, but as binary event hedging on the tariff event itself.
"Will US tariffs on EU industrial goods exceed 20% before July 2026?"
🛡️Planned
Geopolitical Conflicts & Security
Armed conflicts, escalation levels, ceasefires, sanctions regimes. Direct hedging against conflict events instead of indirect exposure through oil prices or defence stocks.
"Will a ceasefire in Ukraine take effect before September 2026?"
🚢Planned
Supply Chain Risk
Direct contracts on port strikes, canal blockades, and logistics bottlenecks — instead of hedging through container shipping stocks or freight rate derivatives.
"Will the US East Coast port strike last longer than 7 days?"
📜Planned
Regulatory Risk
Anticipate new regulation, compliance shifts, and industry interventions. Quantify the probability and hedge directly — before lobbying or restructuring.
"Will EU carbon border tariffs increase before Q3 2026?"
👥Planned
Talent & Labour Market
Tech layoff waves, visa policy changes, remote work mandates, wage inflation triggers. Workforce strategy based on quantified probabilities, not gut feeling.
"Will H-1B visa caps be reduced in 2026?"
⚖️Planned
M&A & Antitrust Risk
Deal approval probabilities, antitrust intervention risk, regulatory clearance timelines. De-risk your M&A pipeline directly.
"Will the EU Commission approve the acquisition of X by Q4?"
🌊Planned
Insurance & Catastrophe Risk
Hurricane seasons, flood events, wildfire triggers, pandemic thresholds. Prediction-market-informed reinsurance and cat bond pricing — directly at the event.
"Will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season exceed twenty named storms?"
🏗️Planned
Real Estate & Construction
Rate paths, building permit trends, rent regulation changes, construction material costs. Quantify and hedge the macro overlay on your portfolio directly.
"Will Berlin's rent control be extended beyond 2028?"
Intra-Corporate Intelligence
Internal Prediction Markets
Your employees know more than your spreadsheets. Internal prediction markets surface hidden information, expose optimism bias, and outperform management forecasts by up to 25%. Proven at Siemens, Google, Ford, HP, Microsoft, Intel.
DAX & MDAX Corporates · Mittelstand 500+ · Innovation Teams · Strategy Units
The crowd inside your company. Employees trade virtual currency on internal events. The aggregated price is the most honest forecast — free from hierarchy bias, groupthink, and politically motivated projections. No committee, no top-down forecast beats a well-designed internal prediction market.
📅Planned
Project Deadline Forecasting
Will this project ship on time? Siemens' internal market correctly predicted failure when all planning tools said "on track."
"Will the ERP migration go live before October 1?"
📦Planned
Sales & Demand Forecasting
HP's internal prediction market beat official sales forecasts in 6 out of 8 quarters. Crowdsource your sales forecast from the people closest to the customer.
"Will Q3 revenue exceed the €45M budget target?"
🧪Planned
Product Launch Prediction
Google ran prediction markets on product launches with thousands of employees. Will the feature ship? Will adoption hit targets?
"Will the new product line reach 10,000 units in the first 90 days?"
🎯Planned
Strategic Decision Support
Should we enter this market? Acquire this company? Let your organisation price the outcomes before the board decides.
"Will our market entry in Southeast Asia reach break-even within 24 months?"
🔬Planned
R&D Pipeline Forecasting
Eli Lilly used prediction markets to identify which drugs would advance through clinical trials. Prioritise your R&D portfolio with collective intelligence instead of committee politics.
"Will Compound X pass Phase II trials by Q2 2027?"
👔Planned
Talent & Hiring Forecasts
Will we hit the hiring target? Will attrition exceed 15%? Surface the organisational knowledge that HR surveys miss.
"Will engineering headcount reach 200 by year-end?"
🏁Planned
Competitive Intelligence
How will competitors respond to price cuts, feature launches, or M&A moves? Internal markets aggregate what sales, product, and strategy already know about the competition — before the next quarterly review surfaces it.
"Will competitor X reduce list pricing before Q2 2026?"
🧩Planned
Additional Use Cases
Bespoke markets for any company-specific question. Compliance risks, partner decisions, integration timelines, culture KPIs — every business-critical uncertainty becomes a tradeable contract. Individually configurable with your strategy team.
PLATFORM

Three layers, one ecosystem

Prediction markets are the tip. Below them: education, tools, and infrastructure that make forecasting systematic.

🎯
Predictions
Vertical forecasting markets with Brier Score leaderboards, simulated P&L, and a three-tier model (Community → AI → Expert).
Live: Finance (5 tracks), Football (3 tracks)
Architecture: Metaculus-style (no real money)
Plus: Polymarket Builder markets (real money)
📚
101 — Education
Deep research layers behind every prediction. Understand the context before you forecast.
Finance: 31 AI Infrastructure entries, Glossary
Football: 22 club dossiers, Soccer Economics
Coming: Prediction market strategy guides
⚡
Infrastructure
Picks-and-shovels layer. The tools that make prediction markets work at scale.
Live: Kelly Calculator, EV Calculator, Value Signal Classifier
Building: Hypothesis engine, backtesting
Planned: News feed, whale trades, arbitrage ticker
SCORING

How forecasters are scored

No gambling. Pure skill and calibration. Three scoring dimensions that reward accuracy, conviction, and consistency.

0.000
Brier Score
The gold standard for probabilistic forecasting. (prediction − outcome)². Range 0.0 (perfect) to 1.0 (worst). Always predicting 50% gives 0.25.
+$247
Simulated P&L
¼ Kelly on $1,000 bankroll with Polymarket costs (0.10% fee + 1% slippage). What would your forecasts be worth in a real market?
★ Expert
Promotion Path
Start as Community (30% weight). Get promoted to Expert (50% weight) through track record or invitation. AI bots hold 20%.
VISION

Where this is going

An ecosystem of vertical content sites, each with a prediction layer. One hub to rule them all.

Vertical content sitesFinance, football, entertainment, politics, energy — each with deep research and community.
Prediction layer on eachEvery vertical gets Metaculus-style forecasting. Same architecture, domain-specific experts and AI models.
Altus Alpha as hubAggregates all verticals. Unified leaderboard. Cross-vertical forecaster reputation.
Multi-model AI benchHaiku Oracle, GPT-4o, Gemini — AI models compete alongside humans on every vertical.
Expert marketplaceNewsletter creators, analysts, fund managers. Invited or promoted through track record. 50% of the headline prediction.
Real-money bridgeReputation-based markets (no money) alongside Polymarket Builder markets (real money). Separate legal structures, shared intelligence.
Infrastructure as productHypothesis engine, backtesting, arbitrage scanner, whale trade ticker. Agent-compatible APIs.
Disruptive monetizationBeyond subscriptions. Prediction-powered alpha signals, embed licensing to media partners, expert consultation layer.

Start forecasting today

Free, reputation-based, no real money. Sign in with Google — one click.

Finance Predictions → Football Predictions →
The Ecosystem → Roadmap → Partner / Investor Inquiry →