Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-arizona-diamondbacks-win-the-2026-world-series__pinnacle

Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 98.00 %

Trade direction

BUY YES on Polymarket / SELL at pendant (Polymarket below pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0105
Bid / Ask
0.0100 / 0.0110 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$73
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
1.16 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 21.39 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Arizona Diamondbacks", exact)
As of
2026-06-27 08:01 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
98.00 %
Reasoning
Standard MLB season outright (World Series winner). Identical to Pinnacle's sports tournament-winner markets. Resolution date aligned with typical MLB World Series completion (late October 2026). Official MLB source matches Pinnacle's primary resolver standard. Binary outcome with single team specified.
Canonical form
Arizona Diamondbacks · Season Outright - World Series Winner · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 46 snapshots, oldest first):

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