Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-athletics-win-the-2026-world-series__pinnacle

Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 98.00 %

Trade direction

BUY YES on Polymarket / SELL at pendant (Polymarket below pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0090
Bid / Ask
0.0080 / 0.0100 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$0
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
1.16 %
Pendant confidence
78.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 21.39 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Athletics", fuzzy)
As of
2026-06-27 08:01 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
98.00 %
Reasoning
Canonical sports tournament winner market. Identical outcome (Oakland Athletics World Series 2026), resolution date aligns with MLB postseason conclusion (Oct 31, 2026), official MLB resolution source is standard for Pinnacle and all major sportsbooks. No ambiguity in outcome naming or resolution criteria. Class A match expected on Pinnacle and DraftKings/FanDuel.
Canonical form
Oakland Athletics · Season Outright Winner · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 46 snapshots, oldest first):

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