Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-buffalo-sabres-win-the-2026-nhl-stanley-cup__pinnacle

Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

sports · class A · confidence 95.00 %

Trade direction

SELL YES on Polymarket / BUY at pendant (Polymarket above pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
YELLOW
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0535
Bid / Ask
0.0530 / 0.0540 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$45,951
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-06-30
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-icehockey_nhl_championship_winner-outrights
Implied probability
2.78 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle icehockey_nhl_championship_winner outrights, vig 27.34 % removed over 32 outcomes (matched "Buffalo Sabres", exact)
As of
2026-08-25 08:00 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
95.00 %
Reasoning
Klasse-A-Match erwartet. Identische quantitative Größe (Stanley Cup 2026 Winner), identischer Team (Buffalo Sabres), identisches Resolution-Datum (2026-06-30), akzeptierte Resolution-Quelle (NHL). Dies ist ein Standard-Season-Outright Markt für professionelle Hockey, der typischerweise auf Pinnacle verfügbar ist.
Canonical form
Buffalo Sabres · season_outright · 2026-06-30

History

Spread history (last 36 snapshots, oldest first):

5 colour changes in the tracking window.

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