Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-chicago-cubs-win-the-2026-world-series__pinnacle

Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 98.00 %

Trade direction

SELL YES on Polymarket / BUY at pendant (Polymarket above pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0260
Bid / Ask
0.0250 / 0.0270 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$4,983
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
2.49 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 21.39 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Chicago Cubs", exact)
As of
2026-06-27 08:01 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
98.00 %
Reasoning
Direct sports season outright bet on a specific team winning the 2026 MLB World Series. Identical outcome (Cubs win WS 2026), identical resolution date (end of 2026 World Series), and resolution source (MLB official) aligns with standard Pinnacle sports outright markets. Pinnacle offers comprehensive MLB season outright coverage. High confidence for Class A match.
Canonical form
Chicago Cubs · Season Outright Winner · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 37 snapshots, oldest first):

← Back to overview