Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 98.00 %

Trade direction

BUY YES on Polymarket / SELL at pendant (Polymarket below pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0065
Bid / Ask
0.0060 / 0.0070 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$6,992
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
0.65 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 21.39 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Cincinnati Reds", exact)
As of
2026-06-27 08:01 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
98.00 %
Reasoning
Standard MLB season outright market for a specific team to win the World Series in a defined calendar year. Clear binary outcome (win or not win). Resolution source (MLB official) is standard and accepted by all major sportsbooks. Resolution date aligns with typical World Series completion window (late October 2026). Pinnacle and comparable books offer identical or near-identical markets for all 30 MLB teams for 2026 season. Expected Klasse A match with multiple Pinnacle equivalents.
Canonical form
Cincinnati Reds · Season Outright Winner · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 37 snapshots, oldest first):