Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-cleveland-guardians-win-the-2026-world-series__pinnacle

Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 95.00 %

Trade direction

SELL YES on Polymarket / BUY at pendant (Polymarket above pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0325
Bid / Ask
0.0310 / 0.0340 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$2,968
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
2.65 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 21.39 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Cleveland Guardians", exact)
As of
2026-06-27 08:00 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
95.00 %
Reasoning
Standard MLB season outright (World Series winner market). Direct team-to-win-championship format matches Pinnacle's sports outrights perfectly. Resolution date aligns with expected World Series completion window. Identical outcome structure and primary resolution source (MLB official) are universally accepted. High confidence of exact Pinnacle match.
Canonical form
Cleveland Guardians · MLB Season Outright · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 46 snapshots, oldest first):

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