Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-detroit-tigers-win-the-2026-world-series__pinnacle

Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 98.00 %

Trade direction

BUY YES on Polymarket / SELL at pendant (Polymarket below pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0100
Bid / Ask
0.0090 / 0.0110 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$4,993
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
1.21 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 21.39 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Detroit Tigers", exact)
As of
2026-06-27 08:00 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
98.00 %
Reasoning
Standard MLB season outright market for 2026 World Series winner. Identical quantitative outcome (specific team championship), resolution date within typical season window (Oct 31, 2026), and official MLB as primary source matches Pinnacle's standard sports book resolution protocols. Pinnacle universally offers team-specific World Series winner markets. High confidence for Class A match.
Canonical form
Detroit Tigers · Season Outright - Championship Winner · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 46 snapshots, oldest first):

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