Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 98.00 %

Trade direction

BUY YES on Polymarket / SELL at pendant (Polymarket below pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0085
Bid / Ask
0.0080 / 0.0090 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$5,178
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
2.29 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 21.39 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Houston Astros", exact)
As of
2026-06-27 08:00 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
98.00 %
Reasoning
Straightforward season outright (World Series winner) for named team in 2026. Pinnacle actively offers MLB season-long championship markets. Resolution source (MLB official) is standard and universally accepted. No material ambiguities in outcome definition or resolution criteria. Matches Class A criteria: identical quantitative outcome, same resolution date, accepted equivalent source.
Canonical form
Houston Astros · season_outright · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 46 snapshots, oldest first):