Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-miami-marlins-win-the-2026-world-series__pinnacle

Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 95.00 %

Trade direction

SELL YES on Polymarket / BUY at pendant (Polymarket above pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0055
Bid / Ask
0.0050 / 0.0060 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$16,728
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
0.51 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 21.39 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Miami Marlins", exact)
As of
2026-06-27 08:01 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
95.00 %
Reasoning
Standard MLB season outright bet. Identical to Pinnacle World Series Champion markets for the 2026 season. Resolution via official MLB source is standard. Resolution date aligns with expected end of 2026 World Series (typically early November). Binary outcome structure (win/no-win) is canonical for season outrights.
Canonical form
Miami Marlins · season_outright · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 37 snapshots, oldest first):

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