Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-minnesota-twins-win-the-2026-world-series__pinnacle

Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 95.00 %

Trade direction

SELL YES on Polymarket / BUY at pendant (Polymarket above pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0065
Bid / Ask
0.0060 / 0.0070 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$70
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
0.57 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 21.39 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Minnesota Twins", exact)
As of
2026-06-27 08:00 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
95.00 %
Reasoning
Standard MLB season outright market. Sport domain with clear tournament winner outcome. Pinnacle actively markets major league baseball championship futures. Resolution date aligns with natural end of 2026 MLB postseason. Identical structure to comparable World Series winner markets. High confidence match class A with Pinnacle or major sportsbooks.
Canonical form
MLB World Series 2026 · Season Outright - Tournament Winner · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 46 snapshots, oldest first):

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