Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 95.00 %

Trade direction

SELL YES on Polymarket / BUY at pendant (Polymarket above pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0105
Bid / Ask
0.0100 / 0.0110 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$4,713
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
0.81 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 21.39 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "New York Mets", exact)
As of
2026-06-27 08:01 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
95.00 %
Reasoning
Klassische Saison-Outright-Wette auf einen Ligameister im professionellen Sport. Identischer Outcome (MLB World Series Winner 2026), identisches Auflösungsdatum, standardisierte Quelle (MLB.com). Pinnacle bietet routinemäßig Saison-Outrights für alle MLB-Teams. Klasse-A-Match zu erwarten: Identical quantitative size, same resolution deadline, accepted equivalent source (official league data).
Canonical form
MLB World Series 2026 · Season Outright - Championship Winner · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 37 snapshots, oldest first):