Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 98.00 %

Trade direction

BUY YES on Polymarket / SELL at pendant (Polymarket below pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.1250
Bid / Ask
0.1200 / 0.1300 (1c spread)
Volume 24h
$530
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
14.06 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 21.39 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "New York Yankees", exact)
As of
2026-06-27 08:00 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
1.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
98.00 %
Reasoning
Standard MLB season outright market for specific team championship win. Identical to Pinnacle's World Series winner markets for 2026. Resolution source (MLB official) is universal standard. Event date aligns with typical World Series conclusion window (late October 2026). Outcome is binary team win/loss. High confidence match expected on Pinnacle Sports as core season outright offering.
Canonical form
MLB World Series 2026 · Season Outright - Championship Winner · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 46 snapshots, oldest first):