Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-philadelphia-phillies-win-the-2026-world-series__pinnacle

Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 98.00 %

Trade direction

BUY YES on Polymarket / SELL at pendant (Polymarket below pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0405
Bid / Ask
0.0400 / 0.0410 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$1,950
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
5.71 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 21.39 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Philadelphia Phillies", exact)
As of
2026-06-27 08:01 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
98.00 %
Reasoning
Standard MLB season outright market for 2026 World Series winner. Pinnacle offers comprehensive MLB championship futures. Resolution source (MLB official) is standard and universally accepted. Event date aligns with typical World Series completion window (late October 2026). Outcome is binary (Phillies win or do not win). No quantitative thresholds or ambiguities present. Expected to find Class A match on Pinnacle or equivalent regulated sportsbook.
Canonical form
Philadelphia Phillies · Season Outright - Championship Winner · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 37 snapshots, oldest first):

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