Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-pittsburgh-pirates-win-the-2026-world-series__pinnacle

Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 98.00 %

Trade direction

SELL YES on Polymarket / BUY at pendant (Polymarket above pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0140
Bid / Ask
0.0130 / 0.0150 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$3,596
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
1.23 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 21.39 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Pittsburgh Pirates", exact)
As of
2026-06-27 08:01 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
98.00 %
Reasoning
Klassische MLB Season-Outright-Frage. Pittsburgh Pirates als Team-Spezifikation, World Series Championship 2026 als Outcome. Resolution-Datum passt zur Saison-Abschluss-Timeline (Oktober 2026). Pinnacle deckt MLB-Outright-Markets standardmäßig ab. Identische Größe, Outcome und Termin mit typischem Pinnacle-Pendant erwartet → Klasse A.
Canonical form
Pittsburgh Pirates · season_outright · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 37 snapshots, oldest first):

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