Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

sports · class A · confidence 95.00 %

Trade direction

BUY YES on Polymarket / SELL at pendant (Polymarket below pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0415
Bid / Ask
0.0400 / 0.0430 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$10,132
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-06-30
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-icehockey_nhl_championship_winner-outrights
Implied probability
5.83 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle icehockey_nhl_championship_winner outrights, vig 27.34 % removed over 32 outcomes (matched "Tampa Bay Lightning", exact)
As of
2026-08-25 08:00 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
95.00 %
Reasoning
Klassische Season-Outright-Wette im Eishockey auf einen spezifischen Team-Champion. Identische Struktur zu Standard-Stanley-Cup-Märkten bei Pinnacle. Resolution-Termin (2026-06-30) entspricht typisches Ende der Stanley Cup Finals. NHL als amtliche Resolution-Quelle ist standard. Hohe Konfidenz für Klasse-A-Match mit equivalenten Pinnacle Stanley-Cup-Outright-Märkten.
Canonical form
Tampa Bay Lightning · season_outright · 2026-06-30

History

Spread history (last 36 snapshots, oldest first):

2 colour changes in the tracking window.