Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-texas-rangers-win-the-2026-world-series__pinnacle

Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 95.00 %

Trade direction

BUY YES on Polymarket / SELL at pendant (Polymarket below pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0220
Bid / Ask
0.0210 / 0.0230 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$5,294
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
2.65 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 21.39 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Texas Rangers", exact)
As of
2026-06-27 08:00 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
95.00 %
Reasoning
Standard MLB season outright market (World Series winner). Identical outcome structure to Pinnacle's sports championship markets. Resolution date aligns with typical World Series completion window (late October 2026). Official MLB resolution source is standard. No ambiguity in event definition or outcome labeling.
Canonical form
Texas Rangers · Season Outright Winner · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 46 snapshots, oldest first):

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